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Airshow Incident and Accident Review

This report does not seek to pass judgement on airshow accidents other than reporting on information in the public domain in an effort to identify and alert the airshow community worldwide, to accident trends in airshow safety, and propose methods for enhancing excellence.

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Introduction
The current report is a continuation of the legacy that Des Barker left to the international airshow community. All efforts will be taken to provide an annual accident and incident review of the previous display season in the same format as the one Des was working with, including comments provided in the final investigation reports, without any attempt to put blame, but rather to share lessons learned.


2024 Statistical Overview
Figure 1 provides yearly totals for airshow incidents and accidents, accompanied by a trendline that illuminates overarching patterns. The moderate rebound observed in 2024 remains beneath prior peak levels, yet it raises legitimate concerns of reverting to what is here proposed as the “Airshow Accident Cycle,” describing a recurring pattern characterized by surges in accident frequency followed by relatively safe periods.
During the pandemic, fewer large-scale events took place, resulting in fewer reported incidents. However, with normal operations resuming, the data indicates a potential cyclical uptick, notable for the intervals from 2008–2014 and again from 2015–2020.


Despite strengthened safety regulations and progress in the international airshow safety culture, inherent challenges in sustaining uniform airshow safety performance over time maintain the persistent fluctuation of accident rates.
Taking a holistic perspective and examining potential correlations between airshow accidents and broader socio-economic conditions indicates that economic factors may exert a significant influence. Specifically, there appears to be a positive relationship between global GDP growth and the frequency of airshow incidents, suggesting that periods of economic prosperity often drive higher demand for airshows, leading to a greater number of events and, in turn, increased exposure to risk.


Looking ahead, preliminary forecasts for 2025 suggest a negative trajectory, reinforcing the importance of continuous collaboration among event organizers, regulatory bodies, and air show performers to ensure this “Airshow Accident Cycle” does not become the norm.

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